Here's what Iowa caucuses mean for California Democrats - San Francisco Chronicle

Californians can start early voting Monday — the same day as the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses. But they might want to wait.

The results from Iowa may be grim for some of the Democratic presidential hopefuls, meaning some Californians’ favorite candidates could either pull out or be limping badly by the time votes are counted here and in the 13 other states that hold primary contests on Super Tuesday, March 3.

“If somebody is your choice on Feb. 3 and they don’t do well in Iowa, then they don’t do well in New Hampshire (on Feb. 11), then you might think about the viability of your candidate in California,” said Michael Ceraso, who ran Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2016 campaign in California and Pete Buttigieg’s New Hampshire operation for several months last year.

Monday’s results will remind Americans what an outsize influence Iowa has in electing the president, something that always infuriates voters in big, diverse states like California. More than 240,000 Iowa Democrats are expected to participate in the caucuses. That would be a record, but it’s still just one-third of the state’s registered Democrats.

The vast majority of Iowans — 92% —are white, and Iowa contributes only 1% of the delegates to July’s Democratic National Convention. Yet little will change until and unless the national party dislodges Iowa from its lead-off spot in the campaign lineup.

So, it is what it is. Here is what Californians should look for in Monday’s Iowa caucus results:

Do progressives line up behind Sanders or Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren? Iowa voters will provide the first peek at the favored candidate among left-leaning voters. But a strong showing in Iowa is more important for Warren, Ceraso said.

“If Warren pulls it off or at least comes in among the top two finishers, then people might evaluate these two progressives differently,” Ceraso said. “Iowa and New Hampshire could play a big role in elevating her or doomsdaying her.”

Sanders has a narrow lead in Iowa over Biden, with Warren and Buttigieg a few points back, according to an amalgamation of top polls by RealClearPolitics.com. Sanders is also leading in recent California polls.

Sanders would not be as damaged in California as Warren by a poor showing in Iowa, “because he has strong movement support” here and his followers won’t desert him, Ceraso said. “He has a low floor, and she has a high ceiling here.”

But Rachel Paine Caufield, author of the book “The Iowa Caucus,” said she doesn’t think Iowa will “provide a lot of clarity” on the Warren versus Sanders battle.

“There’s an expectation that they’re drawing from the same voter pool,” said Caufield, a professor of politics at Drake University. “But a lot of voters don’t vote ideologically. There is actually a lot of overlap between Warren and Buttigieg voters here.”

Can Buttigieg do well enough to keep money flowing from here? The former mayor of South Bend, Ind., has raised nearly 22% of his $51 million in campaign contributions from Californians. He used that haul to fund three dozen field offices and 100 staffers in Iowa.

Buttigieg “needs to be telling some story of victory — first or second place,” said Lily Adams, a top adviser to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and to California Sen. Kamala Harris before she ended her campaign. “You need to show people at every level in California — donors, voters, volunteers — that ‘I am the alternative to some of the more progressive candidates.’”

A poor showing, like a distant fourth, could doom him. Buttigieg already has potential problems as election season moves out of Iowa and New Hampshire — he’s barely getting any support among black or Latino voters in diverse states, including California.

“California investors have a long history of taking gambles on things that don’t pay off, from Pets.com to Webvan,” said Steve Phillips, a former San Francisco school board member who ran a super PAC backing New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker until he quit the race last month.

“There’s a likelihood ... that if Pete Buttigieg doesn’t do well among the white voters of Iowa, then there’s not a home for him in the other early, more diverse states, South Carolina and Nevada,” Phillips said.

Said Caufield: “I think Iowa is a do-or-die state” for Buttigieg.

Does Joe Biden have poll power or people power? The former vice president’s final TV ad before the Iowa caucuses underscores the main selling point of his campaign: that he is the most electable Democrat. “What we imagine today, you can make a reality,” he says in the ad, “but first we need to beat Donald Trump.”

Biden is leading many national polls, largely because of that belief in his electability. But his support in California tumbled from 22% in June to 15% in a Berkeley IGS Poll released last week, good for third place behind Sanders and Warren. A win in Iowa could give California voters confidence that he is the most electable Democrat.

“He is weak across the board with all kinds of voters in California,” Phillips said. But if he were to win Iowa, “then moderate voters would start to consolidate behind him.”

But Adams said Biden doesn’t need to win Iowa because he has solid support among African American and Latino voters, which will help him in the Feb. 22 Nevada caucuses and the Feb. 29 South Carolina primary.

“I don’t think they’ve ever felt that they need a win out of Iowa,” said Adams, a fellow at the Georgetown University Institute of Politics and Public Service. The Biden campaign, she said, “feels that they need to get through Iowa and put up a good showing.”

Mike Bloomberg will be smiling Tuesday if ... “Bernie Sanders wins the Iowa caucuses,” Phillips said. The former New York mayor entered the race because he feared Democrats would nominate someone too far left to defeat Trump — namely, Sanders or Warren.

Bloomberg is taking the unorthodox strategy of skipping the early state contests to focus on Super Tuesday. If you doubt that, see if you can watch TV for 15 minutes in California without a Bloomberg ad coming on. He has spent $30 million on TV commercials in the state, according to ad trackers at the FiveThirtyEight website.

His strategy will get a boost if the centrist candidates — Biden, Buttigieg and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar — tank Monday.

“There are enough people in the Democratic establishment who are put off by the potential of a Bernie Sanders candidacy,” Adams said, “that they will be seeking a more moderate candidate who can legitimately challenge Bernie.”

Joe Garofoli is The San Francisco Chronicle’s senior political writer. Email: jgarofoli@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @joegarofoli

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