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Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Here's what happens to the 2020 dropouts' delegates - POLITICO

Mike Bloomberg had a disastrous Super Tuesday that ultimately spelled the end of his campaign. But he didn’t come away entirely empty-handed.

The former New York City mayor won 53 delegates and counting, according to the most recent tally. Combined with the delegates won by Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, over 85 pledged delegates were awarded to a candidate no longer in the race. And now, with the remaining candidates racing to hit the magic number of 1,991 pledged delegates to win the nomination, questions abound about what happens to the delegates of the candidates who have stepped aside.

The answer to that question only matters if there’s a contested convention, and that possibility is shrinking rapidly as the presidential field narrows. Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are the runaway delegate leaders and will likely stretch that advantage in the coming weeks, especially with Elizabeth Warren considering ending her campaign — though Biden, the current leader, is short of a majority of the pledged delegates awarded so far.

There are two important things to know about what happens to delegates of dropped-out candidates: First, no one can tell them how to vote. And second, because the candidate dropped out, they will actually get fewer delegates than they would have if they stayed in.

To the first point: The Democratic National Committee’s rules only say that pledged delegates “shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.” So come convention day, delegates selected to represent a dropped-out candidate don’t have to cast their ballot for that candidate — or for the person their candidate endorsed.

So while Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar have all endorsed Biden, don’t immediately add their delegates to his total.

However: Campaigns have effective veto control over the people who become their pledged delegates, meaning delegates will likely be loyal to the candidate themselves and honor their wishes.

But how many pledged delegates each dropped-out candidate will have at the national convention is not a simple calculation, either.

Broadly, there are two types of pledged delegates: ones awarded for statewide results (divided into two separate pots) in primaries and caucuses, and ones awarded at the district level.

District-level delegates are basically locked in when votes are cast in primaries, and the ones that Bloomberg won on Super Tuesday or Klobuchar and Buttigieg won in Iowa and New Hampshire will all be there at the convention.

But the two pots of delegates awarded for statewide results are often elected later on at a statewide convention. If a candidate who crossed the viability threshold to earn statewide delegates is not in the race when the time comes to award and elect those delegates, they are removed from the calculation. Instead, the statewide delegates are reallocated among the viable candidates still standing.

The DNC’s delegate allocation rules lays it out this way: “If a presidential candidate entitled to an allocation under this rule is no longer a candidate at the time at-large delegates are selected, his/her allocation shall be proportionately divided among the other preferences entitled to an allocation.”

The preliminary results released by the Colorado Democratic Party illustrate these rules. Bloomberg crossed the viability threshold statewide, but preliminary results from the party do not award him any statewide delegates, even as he still wins district-level delegates. Instead, the two statewide delegate pots are divided among Sanders, Biden and Warren, the remaining viable candidates in the state.

“Since Mayor Michael Bloomberg suspended his campaign, under DNC rules he is no longer eligible to receive statewide delegates,” an announcement from the Colorado Democratic Party reads. “However, he does still receive Congressional District delegates in districts he met threshold.”

Another example: Iowa has 14 statewide delegates, and Buttigieg has the narrowest of leads statewide in the final results from the state party. But Iowa Democrats don’t formally elect statewide delegates until a June convention, meaning Buttigieg won’t actually be awarded statewide delegates.

Most delegate trackers in the media do not reflect this complicated swing. But this complicated delegate dance will only matter if one of the frontrunners cannot secure 1,991 pledged delegates on their own, and it is too early to know if that will happen or not.

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March 05, 2020 at 05:06AM
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Here's what happens to the 2020 dropouts' delegates - POLITICO
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