Five Ways to Follow the Coronavirus Outbreak for Any Metro Area in the U.S. - The New York Times

To help provide a detailed picture of the past, present and future of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States, here are five ways of thinking about it in hundreds of metro areas across the country, using data compiled by The New York Times. This page will be updated regularly.

1. The Big Picture: New Cases and Deaths

The simplest way to track the progress of an outbreak is by seeing how many new cases and deaths are reported in a given area each day. For the United States as a whole, these counts appear to have peaked or are starting to flatten:

New cases per day

United States

30,000 cases

Mar. 1

Apr. 23

7-day average

New cases

New deaths per day

United States

2,000 deaths

Mar. 1

Apr. 23

7-day average

New deaths

Use the search box below to see this relationship for any metropolitan area in the U.S., here or in any of the tables below. (We’ve set it to the New York City area by default.)

New cases per day

New York City area

15,000 cases

Mar. 1

Apr. 23

7-day average

New cases

New deaths per day

New York City area

1,500 deaths

Mar. 1

Apr. 23

7-day average

New deaths

Metro and micropolitan areas are bigger than just the city limits of a given place — they often include the surrounding suburbs and exurbs.

2. Where the Outbreak Is Worst Now

The metro areas with the most recent cases and deaths, relative to their population, in the last two weeks:

New cases, last two weeks

Metro or micro area		Growth in cases	Recent cases	Per 1,000
1	Marion, Ohio	flattening	2,105	32.26
2	New York City area	flat or decreasing	143,380	7.18
3	Grand Island, Neb.	flattening	551	6.48
4	Gallup, N.M.	still growing	449	6.21
5	Pine Bluff, Ark.	still growing	552	6.17
6	Fairfield County, Conn.	still growing	5,466	5.79
7	Sioux Falls, S.D.	flattening	1,405	5.29
8	Trenton-Princeton, N.J.	flat or decreasing	1,761	4.76
9	Albany, Ga.	flat or decreasing	712	4.65
10	New Haven, Conn.	still growing	3,866	4.51
11	Goldsboro, N.C.	still growing	551	4.47
12	Boston	still growing	20,370	4.18
13	Reading, Pa.	flattening	1,653	3.93
14	Gainesville, Ga.	still growing	674	3.33
15	New Orleans	flat or decreasing	3,936	3.10

0.5

1

2.5

5

10

20

New deaths, last two weeks

Metro or micro area		Growth in deaths	Recent deaths	Per 1,000
1	New York City area	flat or decreasing	11,660	0.58
2	Fairfield County, Conn.	flattening	429	0.45
3	Albany, Ga.	flat or decreasing	62	0.41
4	Hartford, Conn.	flattening	437	0.36
5	Detroit	flat or decreasing	1,540	0.36
6	Springfield, Mass.	still growing	218	0.35
7	New Orleans	flat or decreasing	427	0.34
8	New Haven, Conn.	flattening	275	0.32
9	Opelousas, La.	still growing	25	0.30
10	Trenton-Princeton, N.J.	flat or decreasing	105	0.28
11	Torrington, Conn.	flattening	51	0.28
12	Boston	still growing	1,308	0.27
13	Flint, Mich.	still growing	99	0.24
14	Hudson, N.Y.	flat or decreasing	12	0.20
15	Lancaster, Pa.	flattening	106	0.20

0.025

0.05

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Limited to areas with at least 50,000 people. “Flattening” means that the number of new cases is still increasing, but the rate of growth is slowing.

Here, we’ve limited the window of cases to those within the last two weeks. Scaling those cases by the population of the area can help give a sense of the prevalence of the illness there and how strained a community’s health care system may be. Places with curves that are “flattening” or “flat” are likely to move down this list over time; those where new cases and deaths continue to increase are on track to move up. (Of course, case counts are subject to variable rates of testing — cases could fall in places simply because fewer tests are being done — so moderate changes in rankings on these tables may not always be meaningful.)

3. Where Outbreaks Might Come Next

The virus has begun cropping up in new places as it spreads across the country. To identify places that could flare up next, it’s helpful to look not just at the number of cases but how fast they are rising.

Highest avg. daily growth rate of cases

Metro or micro area		Recent cases	Daily growth rate	cases double every...
1	Marion, Ohio	2,105	172%	0.7 days
2	Goldsboro, N.C.	551	90%	1.1 days
3	Waterloo-Ced.Falls, Iowa	396	49%	1.8 days
4	Pine Bluff, Ark.	552	39%	2.1 days
5	Green Bay, Wis.	365	34%	2.4 days
6	Harrisonburg, Va.	384	23%	3.3 days
7	Columbus, Ohio	2,636	18%	4.2 days
8	Gainesville, Ga.	674	18%	4.2 days
9	Gallup, N.M.	449	16%	4.6 days
10	Amarillo, Texas	244	16%	4.6 days
11	Grand Island, Neb.	551	16%	4.7 days
12	Rockford, Ill.	209	15%	4.9 days
13	Grand Rapids, Mich.	673	15%	5.0 days
14	Florence, S.C.	186	14%	5.2 days
15	Fargo, N.D.	256	14%	5.3 days
143	New York City area	143,380	3%	22.0 days

1

2

3

4

7

30

Highest avg. daily growth rate of deaths

Metro or micro area		Recent deaths	Daily growth rate	deaths double every...
1	Reading, Pa.	78	29%	2.7 days
2	Raleigh, N.C.	27	21%	3.7 days
3	Pittsburgh	133	19%	3.9 days
4	Virginia Beach	35	19%	4.1 days
5	Scranton Wilkes-Barre, Pa.	97	18%	4.3 days
6	Minneapolis-St.Paul	113	17%	4.4 days
7	Farmington, N.M.	22	17%	4.4 days
8	Salisbury, Md.	33	17%	4.5 days
9	Washington, D.C.	351	17%	4.5 days
10	Boston	1,308	16%	4.8 days
11	Columbus, Ohio	42	15%	4.9 days
12	Mobile, Ala.	31	15%	4.9 days
13	Hartford, Conn.	437	14%	5.2 days
14	Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.	15	14%	5.2 days
15	Tucson, Ariz.	52	14%	5.2 days
84	New York City area	11,660	5%	14.1 days

1

2

3

4

7

30

Growth rates are averaged over the previous week. Limited to areas with more than 250 cases and 50,000 people. The table showing the average daily growth of the death rate is limited to areas with more than 20 deaths.

Growth rates are useful measures in epidemics because they tell us whether things are getting better or worse. In places where the growth rate is high but the number of cases is relatively low, a community may still have time to flatten its curve before an outbreak becomes widespread.

Communities with a lot of cases and a high growth rate are on track to have a serious problem. A high growth rate on top of a large number of cases means that a still larger number of people are on track to become ill or die.

4. Where There May Be Good News Ahead

Here, the metro areas where new cases and deaths have decreased the most, on a population-adjusted basis, in the last week:

Where new cases are decreasing most

Metro or micro area		A week ago	Now	Change per 100k
1	New Orleans	9,343	3,936	-426
2	Albany, Ga.	1,187	712	-310
3	East Stroudsburg, Pa.	594	344	-147
4	New York City area	171,908	143,380	-143
5	Edwards, Colo.	185	114	-129
6	Hammond, La.	385	225	-120
7	Detroit	14,894	9,748	-119
8	Houma, La.	612	369	-116
9	Scranton Wilkes-Barre, Pa.	1,740	1,142	-108
10	Oxford, N.C.	89	35	-89.8
11	Shreveport, La.	1,103	724	-86.9
12	Allentown, Pa.	2,948	2,220	-86.4
13	Baton Rouge, La.	1,893	1,241	-78.4
14	Burlington, Vt.	280	130	-67.8
15	Waycross, Ga.	96	64	-58.1

-500

-250

0

250

500

Where new deaths are decreasing most

Metro or micro area		A week ago	Now	Change per 100k
1	Greenfield Town, Mass.	18	9	-12.7
2	Albany, Ga.	76	62	-9.1
3	Pittsfield, Mass.	17	11	-4.7
4	New Orleans	485	427	-4.6
5	Bellingham, Wash.	17	7	-4.4
6	Kennewick, Wash.	28	18	-3.4
7	New York City area	12,268	11,660	-3.0
8	Burlington, Vt.	17	11	-2.7
9	Yakima, Wash.	26	20	-2.4
10	Greeley, Colo.	44	39	-1.6
11	Spokane, Wash.	14	7	-1.2
12	Manchester-Nashua, N.H.	19	14	-1.2
13	Tulsa, Okla.	36	26	-1.0
14	Milwaukee	104	90	-0.9
15	Madison, Wis.	14	9	-0.8

-5

-2.5

0

2.5

5

Limited to areas with at least 100 cases and 50,000 people. Figures are sorted by the difference between the number of cases or deaths in the two weeks ending seven days ago compared with the last two weeks. The table showing the change in the number of deaths is limited to areas with more than 20 deaths.

The places on this list are not necessarily those where the outbreak is no longer severe. But sustained decreases in new cases and deaths are signs that a place is going in the right direction.

5. The Places Hit Hardest

Below, the metro areas that have had the highest cumulative case and death rates since the start of the outbreak:

Cumulative confirmed cases

Metro or micro area		Population	cases	Per 1,000
1	Marion, Ohio	65,256	2,137	32.75
2	New York City area	20.0 mil.	330,117	16.52
3	Albany, Ga.	153,009	2,092	13.67
4	New Orleans	1.3 mil.	15,199	11.96
5	Fairfield County, Conn.	943,823	9,883	10.47
6	Edwards, Colo.	54,993	488	8.87
7	Trenton-Princeton, N.J.	369,811	2,753	7.44
8	Grand Island, Neb.	85,088	629	7.39
9	Pine Bluff, Ark.	89,515	656	7.33
10	Gallup, N.M.	72,290	519	7.18
11	Boston	4.9 mil.	33,039	6.78
12	New Haven, Conn.	857,620	5,811	6.78
13	Sioux Falls, S.D.	265,653	1,671	6.29
14	Detroit	4.3 mil.	26,385	6.10
15	East Stroudsburg, Pa.	169,507	1,015	5.99

0.5

1

2.5

5

10

20

Cumulative confirmed deaths

Metro or micro area		Population	deaths	Per 1,000
1	Albany, Ga.	153,009	152	0.99
2	New York City area	20.0 mil.	19,211	0.96
3	New Orleans	1.3 mil.	880	0.69
4	Fairfield County, Conn.	943,823	584	0.62
5	Detroit	4.3 mil.	2,371	0.55
6	Springfield, Mass.	631,761	285	0.45
7	Hartford, Conn.	1.2 mil.	527	0.44
8	Greenfield Town, Mass.	70,963	30	0.42
9	New Haven, Conn.	857,620	345	0.40
10	Trenton-Princeton, N.J.	369,811	133	0.36
11	Opelousas, La.	82,764	29	0.35
12	Torrington, Conn.	181,111	63	0.35
13	Flint, Mich.	406,892	138	0.34
14	Boston	4.9 mil.	1,566	0.32
15	East Stroudsburg, Pa.	169,507	48	0.28

0.025

0.05

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Limited to areas with at least 50,000 people.

As the pandemic progresses, the number of cases and deaths per capita can provide a good measure of the prevalence of coronavirus in a community, even if the deadliest period of the outbreak has passed, as it may have in places like Seattle, New York and New Orleans.

There are other measurements that would be helpful in understanding the progress of the epidemic in different places, such as the number of new hospitalizations, the number of tests administered or the number of people showing any symptoms of respiratory illness. But confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, however incomplete, are the most useful daily statistics currently available at a local level everywhere in the country.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

"Here" - Google News
April 23, 2020 at 09:29PM
https://ift.tt/3eKkTuD

Five Ways to Follow the Coronavirus Outbreak for Any Metro Area in the U.S. - The New York Times
"Here" - Google News
https://ift.tt/39D7kKR
Shoes Man Tutorial
Pos News Update
Meme Update
Korean Entertainment News
Japan News Update