Presented by The Mortgage Bankers Association
Editor’s Note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services' morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 6 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day’s biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.
Quick Fix
Here comes the first taste of recession — At 8:30 a.m. this morning, the federal government will likely tell us the economy declined somewhere between 3 and 6 percent on an annualized basis in the first quarter of 2020. It will only be a light appetizer for the horrible feast to come.
Next Friday, we’ll learn that the unemployment rate is somewhere close to 20 percent (though perhaps lower if the labor force shrinks by a large amount). In July, we’ll find out the economy probably is tanking an annualized 30 percent or more in the second quarter. And it’s worth remembering than when the third quarter comes out and looks strong it will in fact be coming back from a very deep hole. We’ll have to annualize that number as well.
Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson: “We expect to learn today that first quarter GDP fell at a 4.3% annualized rate, but the margin of error here is bigger than usual. … Anywhere between -2% and -6% wouldn't be a big surprise.
“The biggest uncertainty is consumption, which clearly tanked in March, given the terrible retail sales numbers, but we don't have much information on most of the services sector.”
Be wary of a not-so-terrible number — Hamilton Place Strategies’ Matt McDonald, Lloyd Miller, Isabel Steffens, JinAh Kim: “The BEA's first estimates in recessions sometimes miss. When the BEA released its first GDP estimate for the fourth quarter of 2008, they reported GDP declined at an annual rate of 3.8 percent from the previous quarter. We now know the GDP decline that quarter was over 2 times worse, dropping 8.9 percent in Q4 2008.”
Is it worth opening up half an economy? — You can read my full take on this in the POLITICO Nightly coronavirus newsletter. Americans are pretty split in their own minds on the question with one new poll suggesting nearly 90 percent fear an imminent economic collapse and another showing 70 percent of Americans favor staying at home rather than rushing back to work too fast and risk new coronavirus outbreaks.
Most of the early openings features sharp restrictions including half-filled stores and restaurants and empty stadiums. This will mean a slow recovery and also risks fresh virus outbreaks which would cause new shutdowns, new panic and probably crush stocks. So perhaps it makes sense to wait just a bit longer until there is testing, tracking and treatments that make Americans more comfortable and allow the economy to fire on more cylinders.
New polling on virus response — Via the Roosevelt Institute and Groundwork Collective: “The bipartisan agreement is striking; on a list of 17 policies, majorities of Democrats, independents, and Republicans find all but one – tax cuts for corporations – likely to be effective.
“Overall, 39% report they or someone in their household has lost a job, experienced a cut in work hours or pay, or been furloughed. … A majority (56%) believes Congress has not gone far enough to address the economic situation”
Via NPR/Marist poll — “50% of Americans excluding those not employed or retired, up from 18% in March, report they or someone in their household have been let go or have had their hours reduced because of the pandemic
“Americans perceive the coronavirus pandemic to be a crisis that is being better handled by their state’s governor (64%) than by … Trump (32%). A majority of Americans (55%) disapprove of how … Trump is handling COVID-19. This is up from 49% in the Mid-March”
Don’t open too fast — “91% of Americans think it is a bad idea to allow people to attend sporting events without further testing. 85% do not think it is wise for schools to reopen, and 80% think it is a bad idea for restaurants to allow customers to dine in. 65% of residents consider it a bad idea for people to go back to work without further testing.”
And even more polling — In new numbers out from this week's POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, nearly 8 in 10 voters, 79 percent, say it's either very or somewhat likely there will be a second wave of coronavirus cases in the next year …
“Only 9 percent say it's somewhat or very unlikely there will be a second wave. Almost 3 in 4 voters, 73 percent, say Americans should continue social distancing as long as is needed to curb the spread of the virus, even if it damages the economy — though that's down slightly from 76 percent last week.”
GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING — Thanks to all who tuned in for our convo with Nasdaq President and CEO Adena Friedman. More on that below. Email me at [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver at [email protected] and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.
POLITICO Pro is here to help you navigate these unprecedented times. Check out our new Covid-19 Coverage Roundup, which provides a daily summary of top Covid-19 news coverage from across all 16 federal policy verticals as well as premium content, such as DataPoint graphics. Please sign up at our settings page to receive this unique roundup sent directly to your inbox every weekday afternoon.
Driving the Day
Trump at 4:00 p.m. participates in a roundtable with industry executives on the plan for Opening Up America Again … First read on Q1 GDP at 8:30 a.m. expected to show a drop of 3.9 percent …
FOMC announcement at 2:00 p.m. not expected to include any significant changes. Fed Chair Jay Powell is likely to be pressed for details during his 2:30 presser on what other tools it might roll out to help fight the Covid-19 collapse.
Catch my interview with Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman on the latest POLITICO Money podcast. … And you watch the full video here.
FRIEDMAN ON CIRCUIT BREAKERS — Our Kellie Mejdrich: “Nasdaq CEO and President Adena Friedman said … there's room for improvement of the SEC's rules that triggered marketwide trading pauses in response to massive stock selloffs in March.”
MM IDEA BOX — From reader Mickey Kronley: “Why don’t we make the first week of November ‘Election Week’? Last names A-E vote Monday, F-K on Tuesday, etc thru Friday.
“Don’t release results till Friday night. National Guard protects ballot boxes/machines at night. This would reduce voters congregating to only 20% per day.” Obviously networks would not be able to report on exit polls, if they even do them. Thoughts? Email me on [email protected].
ECONOMISTS SAY FORGET THE DEBT — Our Victoria Guida and Marianne LeVine: “As economists urge Congress to infuse the economy with more funds to shield the nation from the coronavirus pandemic, Republican lawmakers have begun to waver, citing a familiar but long-neglected concern: the federal budget deficit. …
“But economists from a broad range of ideological backgrounds are encouraging Congress to keep spending to combat catastrophic job losses — and say now is not the time to focus on the deficit.”
WH SHIFTS CORONA COMMUNICATIONS — Our Daniel Lippman: “The White House is shifting its coronavirus communications coordination from Vice President Mike Pence’s office to the regular White House communications and press shops, according to two administration officials familiar with the matter.
“The effort will now be overseen by Kayleigh McEnany, the new press secretary, and Alyssa Farah, who recently joined the White House as strategic communications director. Both were brought in by Mark Meadows, the new chief of staff, who is planning to beef up the West Wing’s internal communications team further in the coming weeks.”
DEAD PEOPLE SHOULD SEND BACK THEIR STIMULUS CHECKS — Our Aaron Lorenzo: “Economic stimulus payments errantly sent to the deceased should be returned, according to the Treasury Department. A Treasury spokesperson indicated the department is developing a plan to retrieve the coronavirus-related payments, but didn't provide details.”
TRUMP HAILS TROUBLED SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM — Our Zachary Warmbrodt: “Trump … touted the ‘amazing’ numbers of emergency small business loans being issued — even as anxious lenders warned that the administration was leaving scores of their customers in limbo.”
MNUCHIN THREATENS CRIMINAL CHARGES — Also via Zach: “Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin … announced new plans to scrutinize the largest recipients of emergency small business loans and signaled potential criminal penalties if big companies misrepresented their financial situation to secure the money.”
Coronavirus effects
OIL PRODUCER RESCUE HITS SLICK SPOT — Our Ben Lefebvre and Zack Colman: “Trump and his advisers are offering a barrage of increasingly urgent ideas for propping up faltering oil producers — but people in the industry are skeptical that anything will come of it.
“The administration has so far jettisoned plans to buy oil for the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, nixed an idea to eliminate royalty payments for energy produced on federal lands and dropped a discussion of paying oil companies not to produce oil.”
TRUMP ALLIES WORRIED ABOUT HOSTILITY TO OVERSIGHT — Our Andrew Desiderio: “Trump’s recent hostility toward independent federal watchdogs has jolted the very Senate Republicans who are among his most outspoken defenders.
“Two months after acquitting Trump on charges of obstructing Congress, GOP senators are sounding subtle but unmistakable alarms about Trump’s efforts to brush back lawmakers’ oversight of the government’s behemoth, $3 trillion response to the coronavirus pandemic.”
Markets
DAY OF WAFFLING LEAVES INDEXES SLIGHTLY LOWER — AP’s Stan Choe and Damian Troise: “Stocks ended lower on Wall Street after an early gain evaporated. The losses were led by companies that have been investor favorites including Microsoft, Apple and Amazon. The S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent Tuesday and the Nasdaq, which is dominated by tech companies, fell 1.4 percent.”
STOCK MARKET OPTIMISTICS ALREADY LOOKING TO 2021 — Reuters: “Shrugging off reams of terrible economic data, plunging oil prices and dire corporate results, world stocks have recouped around half of this year’s coronavirus-linked losses as investors flip over their calendars to bet on a strong recovery in 2021.”
INVESTORS BET GIANT COMPANIES WILL DOMINATE POST-CRISIS — NYT’s Matt Phillips: “An economic downturn almost always favors giants like Microsoft, Apple and Amazon, the country’s three biggest companies. But the demand for their shares has only been amplified by a crisis that seems almost tailor-made for their future success.”
Fly Around
EARNINGS SEASON IN FULL SWING AMID CERTAIN UNCERTAINTY — AP: “The most active week of the earnings season is on and the rush of quarterly reports Tuesday, 39 in all, captured the maneuvering of companies from almost every sector as they feel their way through an unprecedented economic shockwave. Companies are being affected in different ways but if there’s a common theme, it’s that the situation was bad in the first quarter, and it’s going to get worse.”
MNUCHIN CALLS ON BIG COMPANIES TO APOLOGIZE OVER LOANS — WSJ’s Kate Davidson: “Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is seeking an apology to American taxpayers from large companies that sought coronavirus hardship funds intended for small businesses. ‘Some of these companies should be apologizing,’ he said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. ‘The owners should be apologizing that they took this, not just giving the money back.’”
WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL WARNS OF NEGATIVE SHOCKS BEFORE A REBOUND — Reuters’ David Lawder and Susan Heavey: “Top Trump administration officials on Tuesday predicted a strong economic rebound in the fourth quarter as the coronavirus fades, but a senior White House adviser warned that near-term unemployment and GDP data will be a ‘very grave’ negative shock.
“Kevin Hassett, senior economic adviser to President Donald Trump told CNN that unemployment could reach 16-20 percent, and GDP output could fall as much as 30-40 percent on annualized basis in the second quarter, a prediction in line with Wall Street and Congressional Budget Office forecasts.”
A WINDOW INTO HOME LIFE — Town & Country’s Norman Vanamee: “Two weeks ago Claude Taylor and Jessie Bahrey launched a Twitter account called Room Rater (@RateMySkypeRoom). In it, the boyfriend-girlfriend team comment on and score the background decor of broadcasters, pundits, and celebrities forced to do interviews from home during coronavirus physical-isolation orders.
“Room Rater quickly accrued 100,000 followers and Taylor has appeared on Inside Edition and been interviewed by numerous websites. Subjects of their tweets have begun to tweet back, begging for higher scores. Peter Baker of the New York Times added artwork to his walls after Room Rater pointed out an empty wall hook.”
FIRST LOOK — Multiple financial services groups led by the American Securities Assoc. “are going to be filing a petition for rulemaking at the SEC” this morning “challenging the SEC’s regulation by enforcement around disclosure 12b-1 fees.”
From the petition: “Over the last year, the SEC has used its enforcement authority, rather than its rulemaking authority, to change longstanding, widespread, and previously uncontroversial business practices in the mutual fund space. This is not how the rule of law is supposed to work.”
HOW THE RICH VIEW THE MARKET — Via UBS survey of wealthy investors: “Almost half of wealthy investors expect to keep their stock portfolios at the same level in the next six months, while 37% plan to invest more, according to UBS's quarterly global survey
“The share of investors expressing short-term optimism on their region's economy fell most in the US and least in Europe outside Switzerland”
FIRST LOOK: NEW ABA PARTNERSHIP — Per release out this a.m.: “The American Bankers Association (ABA) and the National Bankers Association (NBA) … announced that the organizations have joined together in a strategic partnership to promote the health and well-being of minority depository institutions (MDIs).”
"Here" - Google News
April 29, 2020 at 07:00PM
https://ift.tt/35gUhx4
Here comes the first taste of recession - Politico
"Here" - Google News
https://ift.tt/39D7kKR
Shoes Man Tutorial
Pos News Update
Meme Update
Korean Entertainment News
Japan News Update
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25244079/4.png)
No comments:
Post a Comment