Tropical Storm Isaias Hovering Off Florida Coast, May Strike Carolinas as Hurricane, Then Sweep Up the East Coast - The Weather Channel

• Isaias is currently paralleling the Atlantic coast of Florida, just far enough offshore.
• Bands of rain and wind gusts are wrapping into the coast.
• Isaias will head toward the Carolinas late Monday into Tuesday.
• Storm surge flooding, strong wind gusts and heavy rain are all possible, there.
• Isaias will then sweep quickly through the Northeast as far as New England.

Tropical Storm Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs) is crawling just off Florida's Atlantic coast and will head to the Carolinas, then up the East Coast as far north as New England, bringing heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge flooding to some areas.

Watches, Warnings and Current Conditions

A hurricane watch has been issued from the South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina, including Myrtle Beach and Wilmington.

Tropical storm warnings now extend as far north as Ocracoke Island, North Carolina. Tropical storm watches have been extended as far north as Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island, Long Island Sound, Delaware Bay, the Tidal Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay.

A watch means the respective conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. A warning means those conditions are expected within 36 hours.

The latest warnings and watches are depicted in the map below.

(MORE: Hurricane Season Terms You Need to Know)

Watches and Warnings

(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours.)

Isaias is currently centered just off the Florida's Space Coast. While much of the rainfall from the storm is located to the north and east of its center of circulation, some outer bands of rain are wrapping ashore, or will soon do so, as far north as the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.

Occasional gusts from 40 to 50 mph have been clocked at various reporting stations along Florida's Atlantic coast, including Vero Beach.

Current Satellite, Radar and Winds

Latest Forecast

Isaias is forecast to maintain its intensity as a strong tropical storm or may tick up a bit to briefly regain hurricane status while tracking from near eastern Florida to near or off the Southeast coast through Monday. The circulation center should make landfall Monday night or early Tuesday in South Carolina or southeast North Carolina.

From there, the storm will sweep quickly northeastward near parts of the Northeast Seaboard to as far north as New England Tuesday into early Wednesday.

(MORE: Mid-Atlantic, Northeast In-Depth Forecast)

Current Information and Projected Path

(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the system. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

Impacts

Wind

Areas near the Florida Atlantic coast could see tropical storm conditions (winds 39 to 73 mph) spread northward through Monday morning.

Current Wind Field

(The orange circle shows the extent of the system's tropical-storm-force winds (at least 39 mph). The purple circle indicates the extent of hurricane-force winds (at least 74 mph), according to the National Hurricane Center.)

Tropical storm conditions will move to coastal Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina on Monday, then into the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday.

Remember, winds will be strongest near the coast and in high rise buildings.

There could be scattered power outages and some tree damage in areas that experience stronger wind gusts.

(Times given show when winds of at least 40 mph are expected for a given community with higher chances of seeing these winds are shown in red and purple. )

Storm Surge

Dangerous storm surge flooding is possible in parts of the Carolinas.

A storm surge warning has been issued from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet, above ground level, is expected if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. The highest surge should occur immediately to the east of where Isaias is expected to move ashore.

The high tide of most concern in the Carolinas is Monday evening.

According to the National Weather Service, minor flooding is expected in downtown Charleston, South Carolina, during that high tide Monday evening.

Otherwise, a surge of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is possible from northeast Florida to southern South Carolina, as well as the rest of the North Carolina coast, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, the Virginia Tidewater, Chesapeake Bay and the Tidal Potomac River.

Storm Surge Forecast

(Data from the National Hurricane Center)

Swells generated by Isaias will ride up the East Coast ahead of Isaias, leading to high surf and the danger of rip currents. The high surf may only slowly fall after Isaias passes.

Rainfall Flooding

Isaias has the potential to produce the following rainfall totals along its path early this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

-Eastern Florida: 1 to 3 additional inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

-Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches

-Carolinas and mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches

-Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

The heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding in some of these areas. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible in parts of the eastern states.

For more on possible impacts in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, read our latest discussion here.

Rainfall Forecast

(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the forecast path of the tropical cyclone. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours. )

Tornadoes

Isaias could also spawn short-lived tornadoes along its path up the East Coast.

An isolated threat is possible beginning late Monday and early Tuesday from coastal South Carolina into eastern North Carolina and far southeast Virginia.

The chance of an isolated tornado could spread to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Storm History

Isaias is the earliest named ninth Atlantic tropical cyclone on record. The previous record was Irene on Aug. 7, 2005.

Typically the ninth named tropical system occurs in the Atlantic basin in early October, meaning this year's pace is over two months ahead of average.

(MORE: The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Is on a Record Pace)

The system developed from a large, vigorous tropical wave which emerged off the west coast of Africa around July 23-24.

On July 28, the National Hurricane Center designated the system "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine", a procedure allowing the issuance of tropical storm warnings for parts of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands before the system had actually become a tropical depression or storm.

Isaias finally became a tropical storm late on July 29, when it was centered about 150 miles south of Ponce, Puerto Rico.

Track History of Isaias

(The white segment of the track history corresponds to when the National Hurricane Center considered the system a "potential tropical cyclone" from July 28 to July 29. )

Heavy rain triggered serious flash flooding in several areas of Puerto Rico. San Juan picked up 6.04 inches of rain from July 29-30. Parts of eastern Puerto Rico picked up over 10 inches of rain in 48 hour estimates from the National Weather Service.

Multiple fallen trees, mudslides and flooding were reported in southwest Puerto Rico, according to local emergency management. River flooding was recorded by USGS gauges in several locations in Puerto Rico.

(NEWS: Deadly Isaias Has Left Widespread Damage Across Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico)

Parts of the Dominican Republic picked up to 13 inches of rain from Isaias, according to the country's national meteorological office.

Isaias' center hopscotched across Hispaniola, then became a hurricane before brushing through the Inagua Islands.

Isaias then arrived in the Bahamas. Winds gusted to 56 mph at Nassau International Airport, and power was shut off to some parts of the island as a precaution on August 1.

(MORE: Isaias Impacts in the Bahamas)

The center of Isaias moved over northern Andros Island in the Northwest Bahamas, on August 1, where a gust to 69 mph was measured by a U.S. Navy site.

As it was doing so, wind shear temporarily blew thunderstorms away from Isaias, exposing the low-mid level core of Isaias in a stunning satellite loop.

Winds gusted to 62 mph Sunday morning in Freeport, Grand Bahama, hard hit 11 months ago from Hurricane Dorian.

What appeared to be at least a couple of feet of storm surge flooding was documented by Freeport resident Lean Burrows Sunday morning.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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Tropical Storm Isaias Hovering Off Florida Coast, May Strike Carolinas as Hurricane, Then Sweep Up the East Coast - The Weather Channel
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