It might not seem possible, but with four weeks left in the season, every single team in the NFC is still mathematically alive to make the playoffs.
The 4-8 Falcons? Still alive
The 3-8-1 Eagles who just benched their starting quarterback? Still alive.
The 4-8 Panthers? Still alive.
The 3-9 Cowboys? Yup, they're mathematically still alive, which is why you can't trust mathematics.
Since the NFL realigned its divisions back in 2002, this year will mark just the fourth time that every NFC team has been alive in the playoff race this late in the season. On the other hand, not every team in the AFC has been so lucky. The Chargers and Bengals were both eliminated from postseason contention in Week 13, which means there are now four AFC teams that have been knocked out of the playoff race.
With four AFC teams out, that means 28 teams are still alive across the NFL and with that in mind, let's get to this week's projections.
As always, the projections here are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com. Basically, Oh plugged some numbers into his SportsLine computer this week and simulated the rest of the NFL season, and using those numbers, we're going to let you know the playoff chances for the 28 teams who are still alive, plus the projected 14-team playoff field.
As for the four teams who have been eliminated -- I'm looking at you Jets, Jaguars, Bengals and Chargers fans -- here's a mock draft you can read to pass the time. For everyone else, let's get to the projections.
Note: Remember, this is a projection based on how we think the rest of the regular season will play out. If you want to see the current playoff standings, be sure to click here.
With that in mind, let's get to the projections.
AFC Playoff Projection
First team out: Dolphins (60.2% chance of getting into the playoffs)
Note: The first team out could end up making the playoffs. The NFL has approved a proposal that will expand the playoffs to 16 teams, but that will only happen if COVID-19 causes the cancellation of multiple regular season games that have a bearing on who might make the playoffs.
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Raiders (31.3%), Patriots (12.9%), Texans (0.0%), Broncos (0.0%).
Officially eliminated: Jets, Jaguars, Chargers, Bengals.
Note II: The Texans and Broncos haven't been eliminated from playoff contention, but they have a zero percent chance of making it because the computer hates them. Actually, the computer doesn't love or hate, it has no feelings, it just doesn't think there's a mathematical chance for either team to make it.
NFC Playoff Projection
First team out: Vikings (31.2% chance of getting into the playoffs)
Note: The first team out could end up making the playoffs. The NFL has approved a proposal that will expand the playoffs to 16 teams, but that will only happen if COVID-19 causes the cancellation of multiple regular season games over the final eight weeks of the season.
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Washington (37.8%), 49ers (17.1%), Bears (13%), Eagles (5.8%), Lions (6.9%), Cowboys (1.9%), Falcons (0.6%), Panthers (0.2%)
Note II: The Eagles, Cowboys and Washington have a higher percentage than several other teams because the computer believes they have a better shot of winning the NFC East than most other NFC teams have of earning a wild-card berth.
Wild-card round projection
AFC
(7) Ravens at (2) Chiefs
(6) Colts at (3) Bills
(5) Browns at (4) Titans
Bye: Steelers (Pittsburgh would host MIami in the wild-card round of a 16-team playoff)
NFC
(7) Cardinals at (2) Packers
(6) Buccaneers at (3) Rams
(5) Seahawks at (4) Giants
Bye: Saints (New Orleans would host Minnesota in in wild-card round of a 16-team playoff)
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December 09, 2020 at 08:39PM
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2020 NFL Playoff Picture: Here are the projected postseason chances for all 32 teams heading into Week 14 - CBS Sports
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