We are 15 days from Christmas, which usually feels like blistering towards the end of the NFL season. It doesn't feel that way right now, but that's because everything feels like it's lingering at the precipice of cancellation. Every game of college basketball -- considering what they've dealt with in terms of cancellations and outbreaks -- feels like free money.
The NFL hasn't had as many problems, but everyone here is a professional being paid money for it. Weird how that works. Anyway, we're three-quarters into the NFL season and if we get the next 25 percent in let's consider it a massive win. Let's do the same thing every NFL team is doing -- tighten up, toss on a mask and fight down the stretch
Also, let's find some winners. Last week we got white hot and it was mostly backing underdogs of more than two points. I think that's the move going forward. We're week-to-week, so take the points.
You'd be ahead of the curve on some games if you listened to me and John Breech talking early Week 14 lines on the Pick Six Podcast (it's daily, tons of football and some mirth, subscribe). So listen to that below and hit the picks after.
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NFL Week 14 Picks
New England (6-6) at L.A. Rams (8-4)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox/Amazon/NFL Network)
Part of the reason why we got on board with the Patriots as a best bet last week was Bill Belichick vs. Anthony Lynn. Belichick vs. Sean McVay is a WHOLE different ballgame, obviously. But it's hard for me to get the Super Bowl out of my head and how McVay was extremely excited to go against Belichick. I don't think that informs how this game goes, but I do believe Belichick is confident he can scheme up some stuff to confuse Jared Goff and limit the Rams run game. The Rams defense is excellent, but I expect this to be a meat/potatoes grinder and the Pats stay within the number. I would take Cam Newton anytime touchdown if it's anything better than -125.
The Pick: Patriots 21, Rams 17
Best Bet(s): Pats +6, Cam Newton 1st TD (TBD) and anytime TD (-125 or better)
Arizona (6-6) at N.Y. Giants (5-7)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Wrong team is favored here, regardless of who is the quarterback for the Giants. I don't love backing a "Colt McCoy + Wayne Gallman being captained by Jason Garrett" situation at all. But Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray aren't right at the moment. DeAndre Hopkins hasn't run a route from anywhere on the right side of the line of scrimmage over the last three weeks. That coincides with both Murray's shoulder injury and his precipitous drop in rushing attempts -- just 15 over the last three games. Murray isn't right and the Cards are trying to game plan around it. So we're going to get a very good defensive team fighting for its life against a banged up Murray as a dog at home? We're taking that dog. I think the under is a great bet here too. Neither team is taking chances. It only goes over with a couple of defensive touchdowns.
The Pick: Giants 17, Cardinals 14
Best Bet(s): Under 45, Giants +2
Denver (4-8) at Carolina (4-8)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Again, wrong team favored? The Panthers have played great all season but if they're a four-point fave here it's not right. The Broncos are a BAD matchup for them. You probably have to wait and see what happens with this game for COVID purposes but I would have made the Broncos a favorite in this spot. If you get Denver as a dog take it.
The Pick: Broncos 21, Panthers 17
Best Bet(s): Broncos +4, Under (45 or better)
Tennessee (8-4) at Jacksonville (1-11)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
This traditional Week 12 Thursday Night Debacle has been moved to Sunday and it should be exciting! The Jaguars are awful but Mike Glennon is giving them some life. That's not a joke -- they've lost their last two games by five total points and have been competitive. People make tanking jokes, but the Jags won't "catch" the Jets for the top pick, and Doug Marrone is trying to save his job. I think they hang here and would absolutely take the Jags with the points, but the over is a better bet. The Titans will fire back and forth with teams and Glennon has thrown 75+ times the last two games. If somehow James Robinson is better than -125 to score, I would take that, but love the plus money on tight end Tyler Eifert to score a touchdown in what should be a shootout.
The Pick: Titans 34, Jaguars 31
Best Bet(s): Over 53, Tyler Eifert anytime TD
Kansas City (11-1) at Miami (8-4)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
No one wants to fade the Chiefs right now, I would imagine. I don't. But I do think anything above seven is a bit excessive. They're beating teams but not smashing them. They're 11-1 and they've won their last four games by a total of ... 15 points. This is sort of the similar formula they ran last year, and I just don't think they care about cranking up the volume in December. They're not going to try and set it on fire with deep shots. I bet there's lots of short passes and long drives against a defense Andy Reid will properly respect.
The Pick: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 20
Best Bet(s): Would look at player prop unders but you shouldn't take Chiefs player props unders
Dallas (3-9) at Cincinnati (2-9-1)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Ladies and gentlemen, it's here. The Andy Dalton Revenge Game. That was not actually a joke. We want to hammer the Cowboys here, because they are awful but the Bengals are actually worse now. Dallas needs this for various reasons and Dalton will definitely throw a couple of feel good touchdown passes during this 1 p.m. ET game (note that it is not primetime, nor anywhere near). The Cowboys are gonna get loose here and the Bengals won't have much of a response offensively. Dallas isn't good but they really, really need this one and it's meaningless.
The Pick: Cowboys 31, Bengals 13
Best Bet(s): Nope
Houston (4-8) at Chicago (5-7)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Stinky game here between two teams who met in the middle after spending the early part of the season on opposite ends of the totem pole. Imagine telling a Bears fan in Week 6 (5-1 at the time, first place in the entire NFC) they would be a pick 'em against the Texans (1-5 after five weeks) and their chances at .500 would be on life support. It would be tough, because they would laugh at you and call you insane. But it would be fun because they had no idea how bad it would get. Having said that ... the Bears are absolutely winning this game and very easily. Houston without Will Fuller is a terrible matchup against Chicago's style of play.
The Pick: Bears 27, Texans 17
Best Bet(s): David Montgomery over rush yards (eying something like 65, would take up to 75 probably)
Minnesota (6-6) at Tampa Bay (7-5)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Massive, massive game in terms of NFC implications. And I don't think you can expect enough points here. The Buccaneers do the one thing that turns the Vikings into an over team: stop the run and give up passing yards to elite route runners. The Vikes have two in Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. If only we could cause Tom Brady to explode offensively by limiting the pressure a defense puts on him. Do you know who the Vikings leading pass rusher is? Because it's Yannick Ngakoue, who was traded to the Ravens like five weeks ago. Brady is going to cook against young corners and no pass rush, and then Kirk Cousins will be told to cut loose and chase points. Give me the dog and the over. Thielen over catches would be the prop I'd target here, but there's tons of options.
The Pick: Buccaneers 35, Vikings 31
Best Bet(s): Over 51.5
Indianapolis (8-4) at Las Vegas (7-5)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
This is probably a Force/Dark Side game for my personal brand, so I'm wary of being biased, but it's a terrible matchup for the Raiders and Derek Carr. His main weapon is Darren Waller -- Darius Leonard eliminates tight ends. Las Vegas won't be able to run the ball so the onus is on Henry Ruggs to carry the entire game. This is The Jonathan Taylor Breakout Game. Bet it as such.
The Pick: Colts 24, Raiders 10
Best Bet(s): Colts -3, Jonathan Taylor over rush yards (2u on anything less than 75), Taylor anytime TD (2u)
New York Jets (0-12) at Seattle (8-4)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
When the Seahawks and Giants played last week, it felt like they could do whatever they wanted because the Giants defense isn't good and Colt McCoy, blah blah blah. But it was a bad narrative and doesn't apply to another New York team. The Jets are awful against, well, everything. And now the Seahawks are mad and need to show they are not a team to be reckoned with. Russell Wilson is about to cook with D.K. Metcalf in a big way this weekend. If Seattle comes out conservative here on offense, sell every Super Bowl future you might consider buying.
The Pick: Seahawks 34, Jets 10
Best Bet(s): All the Seahawks overs
Washington (5-7) at San Francisco (5-7)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Two possible playoff teams. Two enter. Only one leaves. And to top it off, this might as well be a Spiderman Meme game. The difference here is the Washington Football Team's defensive line will get home and the 49ers pass rush won't. That gives Alex Smith enough time to hit Logan Thomas a bunch and the WFT's to keep the heat on the G-Men.
The Pick: WFT 24, 49ers 20
Best Bet(s): Nah
New Orleans (10-2) at Philadelphia (3-8-1)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Taysom Hill versus Jalen Hurts is both a) exactly what we needed right now and b) very 2020. Imagine describing this matchup to someone in October 2017. They would stuff you in a cryogenic chamber for 5-10 years, which would have been a huge favor except for the fact you'd never know about murder hornets. Or the epic Hill-Hurts battle of 2020. This feels like a lot of quarterbacks running and feels like an under spot. Hurts is definitely going to bounce out of the pocket early against a great Saints defense. And Hill will have a bunch of designed runs against a good Eagles defensive line. The clock is running here. If you want a prop go with Latavius Murray's over rush yards, anything under 55.
The Pick: Saints 24, Eagles 10
Best Bet(s): Under 44
Green Bay (9-3) at Detroit (5-7)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Honestly, the only reason to watch this game is to bet on Davante Adams scoring the first touchdown. He's 5-1 every week and he should be -110 the way he's hitting. Adams this season on first touchdowns is like Tiger Woods in his prime at majors. Shattering obscenely low odds on a weekly basis. Bet that, expect a shootout, pick the Lions to cover and enjoy.
The Pick: Lions 35, Packers 31
Best Bet(s): Davante Adams first TD 5-1
Atlanta (4-8) at L.A. Chargers (3-9)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Perfect Justin Herbert bounceback spot here. The Falcons defense is playing better, everyone thinks they're making a run and now Herbert is being buried as a potential OROY. He's gonna throw a couple bombs here and they'll beat the Falcons. Chargers are the definition of a buy low on the spread with a desperate Anthony Lynn. This is a smash spot for Austin Ekeler receptions. Anything under ... like ... 8 is good.
The Pick: Chargers 28, Falcons 24
Best Bet(s): Ekeler over receptions
Pittsburgh (11-1) at Buffalo (9-3)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Would really hate to see what happens if the Steelers lose two in a row. There's a bunch of Steelers fans who are out for blood. I respect that because they were a disrespected 11-0. Recency bias has me concerned with backing Josh Allen, but attrition bias has me more worried about this Steelers defense. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are going to light this crew up and if Buffalo's offensive line protects the way they did on Monday night, this could actually get ugly.
The Pick: Bills 31, Steelers 17
Best Bet(s): Bills -2.5, Stefon Diggs over receiving yards (85.5 or lower)
Baltimore (7-5) at Cleveland (9-3)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
This is another "Back to the Future" game. Tell your friend in 2017 (or 2019) that "it's cool the Browns are two games ahead of the Ravens in the AFC North standings and are a mild favorite at home to essentially lock in a playoff spot." You'll be greeted with obscenities, sarcasm or sarcasm-filled obscenities. But here we are. So give me the Ravens. Have you lost your mind if you take the Browns?? You might have. Take Lamar Jackson here.
The Pick: Ravens 24, Browns 17
Best Bet(s): TBD, listen to the pod
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