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Sunday, February 21, 2021

Forecast: rain & snow Sunday, then here comes the warmth! - KOMU 8

Good afternoon, everyone! We finally - FINALLY - got above freezing in Columbia today. Most everyone across the region saw temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s Saturday afternoon. 

After a brief rain/snow mix (with much more rain than snow) for Sunday, the warming trend will continue into the workweek. We will track it all here. 

Tonight and Sunday: Our Next Round of Precip

Unlike the past two weeks, temperatures Saturday night are not going to tank once the sun sets. We're expecting lows in the 25-30 degree range across mid-MO. That will still be enough to create some slick spots from re-freezing late tonight, but the deep cold is finally gone.

RPM ADI 4km Temps.png

Clouds will also be on the increase out ahead of Sunday's precipitation chance. 

If you wake up early enough Sunday, you might catch a glimpse of the sun before thicker overcast moves in. A rain/snow mix will enter mid-MO from the west starting around mid morning. It should gradually spread eastward throughout the middle of the day, and I anticipate rain for most of us by early afternoon. 

Rain Trend Forecast.png
Tim Surface Map.png

Notice, however, that the majority of the snow stays NORTH of the area. We could still see some flakes north of I-70, but the accumulating stuff will remain up towards the Iowa border and points north. This is because our temperatures will rise into the 35-45 degree range - more than sufficient to change any snow we do see over to rain. 

Nevertheless, I do see the potential for minor slushy accumulations north of HWY 24, though anything that builds up should melt off quickly. 

GFS-ECMWF ADI Snow Accum..png

In terms of rainfall amounts, this will be a light event. Look for anywhere from a trace to a quarter inch of rain. 

The Workweek: Warming Up, then More Active

Temperatures Monday will comfortably get into the 40s, with highs near 50 down towards the Lake of the Ozarks. Then - on Tuesday - southerly winds and sunshine will combine to loft readings area-wide into the 50s. Some of us may even make a run at 60. Just how warm your particular location gets will depend upon how much snowpack is left. 

GFS ADI 100km Temps.png

Indications are that the pattern will get more active by midweek. The jet stream will once again dip down into the Midwest, sending a cold front through Wednesday. However, there doesn't appear to be any real cold air behind this front.

INT FCST PM Extended Forecast.png

Thus, although things will get more active (and maybe rainy towards next weekend), I don't see a major cold snap anytime soon. 

Have a good rest of your weekend! 

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February 21, 2021 at 06:30PM
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Forecast: rain & snow Sunday, then here comes the warmth! - KOMU 8
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