Here are the odds of someone having COVID-19 at your Thanksgiving gathering - MassLive.com

Thanksgiving is right around the corner and the coronavirus pandemic is showing no signs of slowing down.

Plans to gather for the holiday should be decided cautiously, many local officials throughout the state of Massachusetts have warned, as the state is amidst a surge of cases and currently has a positive test rate of 3.1%.

In Worcester, City Manager Edward M. Augustus has asked residents to not gather in groups larger than 10 people, and to only include household members in those gatherings.

“Make sure that what you’re enjoying at that Thanksgiving gathering isn’t marred by somebody transmitting the virus, particularly to a more vulnerable family member...the last thing you want to do is have that be the last Thanksgiving gathering,” Augustus stated in a recent COVID-19 briefing press conference.

In that same briefing, the city’s Medical Director, Dr. Michael Hirsh, referenced a COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool and stated that, in Worcester, there’s a 10% chance that one person out of 10 people gathered together for Thanksgiving will have COVID-19. That chance has increased to 13% since Dr. Hirsh’s statement, according to the tool.

(*The numbers in the map below are as of 12 p.m. ET on 11/16/20. If you have trouble seeing the map, click here)

Georgia Institute of Technology professors Joshua Weitz and Clio Andris created the tool to help folks gauge the risk factor when attending public events, and the tool is now being utilized ahead of the holiday season to assess similar risks.

The tool allows you to measure risk in regards to size and location within the U.S.

For example, in Boston, according to the tool, there is a 15% chance one of out 10 people gathered together for Thanksgiving will have COVID-19.

Host a gathering of 25 people, and that risk increases to 34%.

In Springfield, a gathering of just 10 people poses a 17% chance of contracting the virus.

You can view the map here to assess the risk of a Thanksgiving gathering here.

Here’s a breakdown of the risk level for a gathering of 10 people by county, according to the data (*These numbers are as of 12 p.m. ET on 11/16/20):

• Barnstable County 4%
• Berkshire County 7%
• Bristol County 18%
• Dukes County 15%
• Essex County 18%
• Franklin County 3%
• Hampden County 17%
• Hampshire County 7%
• Middlesex County 11%
• Nantucket County 21%
• Norfolk County 8%
• Plymouth County 8%
• Suffolk County 15%
• Worcester County 13%

Keep in mind these percentages are just estimations and the risk of transmission may be higher. Cases are surging in Massachusetts and across the United States. On Sunday, Massachusetts reported 2,076 new COVID cases, and 33 more deaths.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, at least 182,544 people in Massachusetts have contracted the virus, which has infected nearly 11 million people across the nation. At least 10,098 have died due to COVID-19-linked illness over the course of the crisis.

There are currently 30 communities in Massachusetts labeled as high risk for spreading of the virus, per the Department of Public Health.

Last week, Governor Charlie Baker announced that a 240-bed field hospital will be reopened at the DCU Center in Worcester to help manage hospital capacity amid the surging pandemic.

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