How bad will Hurricane Henri get? Here’s what N.J. forecasters say. - NJ.com

THE LATEST: Risk of ‘significant’ flash flooding increasing in parts of N.J., new Hurricane Henri forecast says

With Hurricane Henri intensifying off the Atlantic Coast on Saturday and continuing its march toward the Northeast, a possible milestone may be reached: This could be the first hurricane to directly hit the New York area since Hurricane Sandy’s devastation nine years ago.

But according to forecasters, the comparisons stop there.

“This is not gonna be Sandy,” David Robinson, New Jersey’s state climatologist at Rutgers University, told NJ Advance Media on Saturday morning. “It’s that simple. Unless there’s a major change. That’s always possible. But it would take a major change in the anticipated intensity of the storm and path of the storm.”

The U.S. National Hurricane Center upgraded Henri from a tropical storm to a hurricane at 11 a.m. Saturday.

Rain and wind are expected to lash New Jersey from Saturday night into Sunday, but the state is likely to avoid the worst of the storm. Forecasters say Henri is expected to make landfall Sunday afternoon in either Long Island or southeastern Connecticut before heading north into Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

Robinson said Henri is in a “favorable position” to intensify in the coming hours but is likely to be a “low-end category 1 hurricane or a very strong tropical storm” by the time it reaches land. He said it will reach cooler waters as it gets closer to Long Island, which “should eliminate any further intensification.”

Sandy was a category 1 hurricane when it hit New York and New Jersey.

In a worst-case scenario, Robinson said, Henri could become a category 2 hurricane, which would cause winds of up to 100 mph.

“But not in New Jersey,” he noted.

The Garden State, Robinson said, will be on the west side of the storm, with weaker winds. Forecasters say gusts here could be 30 to 50 mph in some spots.

Trent Davis, a meteorologist with the weather service’s Mount Holly office, concurred that “it’s not really a fair comparison” to look at Henri in relation to Sandy, given that Sandy had a different track and more strength. The only thing that’s similar is both have made a leftward “turn in the track,” Davis said.

“But given this storm is to make landfall to the east, it looks like heavy rain is going to be more the factor in play, as well as blustery winds,” he said.

Even if it misses a direct hit, New Jersey is likely to see heavy rain Saturday night into Sunday, especially in the northern half of the state, forecasters say.

That could cause flash flooding inland and some minor coastal and tidal flooding along the coast. There could also be rough surf and rip currents on the coast. And the wind could lead to power outages.

The National Weather Service has issued tropical storm warnings for Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Monmouth, and Union counties.

The projected impact of Hurricane Henri.

David Adkins, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, said much of central and north Jersey will get 1-2 inches of rain, with 2-4 in some parts of North Jersey. Long Island, Connecticut, and other parts of the Northeast are likely to see much more.

Robinson agreed that rain will be “the concern for New Jersey,” though it probably won’t be enough to bring the Passaic or Raritan rivers up.

“There may be local flash flooding, but North Jersey can handle 2-3 inches of rain this time of year,” the state climatologist said.

“This will probably be Long Island and Connecticut’s storm,” Robinson said.

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Brent Johnson may be reached at bjohnson@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter at @johnsb01.

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How bad will Hurricane Henri get? Here’s what N.J. forecasters say. - NJ.com
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