Ida brought disaster to Louisiana. Here's what the storm is doing next. - The Washington Post

Hurricane Ida slammed into southeast Louisiana as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds Sunday afternoon, tying for the most intense hurricane landfall in the state’s history. Downgraded to a tropical storm Monday morning, Ida’s top threat is flooding rainfall as it trudges through Mississippi, the Tennessee Valley and, ultimately, the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

At 11 a.m. Monday, Ida was centered 40 miles southwest of Jackson, Miss., packing peak winds of 40 mph, slowly heading to the north at 9 mph.

Ida is predicted to weaken to a tropical depression Monday afternoon, so the threat from strong winds will gradually diminish, though gusty conditions remain possible in southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama until Monday night.

As the storm swept ashore near Port Fourchon early Sunday afternoon, it unleashed wind gusts over 170 mph, while its surge, or storm-driven rise in ocean water above normally dry land, resulted in up to seven feet or so of inundation along the coast of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi. In New Orleans, winds gusted up to 90 mph as the entire city lost power.

Widespread torrential rain produced totals of five to 10 inches, with up to 15 inches locally, causing severe flash flooding that topped levees and engulfed communities, requiring hundreds of high-water rescues.

While the most dangerous phase of this storm has ended, conditions are hazardous in the areas hit hard by destructive winds and flooding.

“In areas that experienced damage and power loss, individuals should use extreme caution during the recovery phase,” the National Hurricane Center wrote. “Post-storm fatalities and injuries often result from heart attacks, heat exhaustion, accidents related to clean up and recovery, and carbon monoxide poisoning from improper generator use.”

Moreover, through Thursday, Ida is still predicted to produce heavy rain and potential flooding in at least a dozen states, from Mississippi to Massachusetts.

“Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic,” the Hurricane Center cautioned.

In addition, there is the risk of some tornadoes near and east of Ida’s track.

The rain forecast

Underscoring the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, the National Weather Service has described the situation as a Level 3 out of 4 risk of excessive rainfall.

Heavy rain will still be an enormous issue for many in the Mississippi Valley, an area that has been hit hard by heavy rainfall as of late and doesn’t need any more of it. Totals in central and eastern Mississippi should range between four and six inches, with three to five inches probable in Alabama west of Interstate 65.

The rain should enter southwest Tennessee by shortly after noon Monday and quickly become moderate to heavy as the center of Ida treks along its southern border. Showers will linger over the Cumberland Plateau early on Tuesday before the system finally escapes the state. In most places, the rain should last 12 to 18 hours, and could dump three to six inches, with isolated higher amounts — including in the town of Waverly, northwest of Nashville, where 21 people were killed last weekend amid catastrophic flooding as more than 15 inches of rain came down in barely six hours.

Saturated soils will exacerbate likely additional flooding because the ground can’t handle much more water. Flash flood watches span more than 1,200 miles, stretching from the Gulf Coast all the way to just west of New York City.

Kentucky, West Virginia and southern Ohio will see rainfall Tuesday and Tuesday night, with a widespread two to four inches and localized amounts topping half a foot.

By Wednesday, the threat of flooding shifts to parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Such cities as Washington, Baltimore and Philadelphia are under flash flood watches. The heaviest rainfall may wind up just northwest, farther inland of the nation’s capital, but it will be a tightrope walk — subtle shifts of around 50 miles in the track of Ida’s remnants will have enormous bearings on how much rainfall is observed.

Much of the East Coast has already seen exceptional rainfall this month, punctuated by bouts of flooding. Washington, for instance, has recorded nine inches of rain in August, more than twice the expected amount. Philadelphia is running two inches ahead, while New York City is pushing 10 inches.

Terrain could play a role in enhancing heavy rainfall in parts of the central Appalachians. It’s not out of the question that a few communities in extreme-northeast West Virginia, the panhandle of Maryland or along Interstate 81 in south-central Pennsylvania close in on double-digit totals.

Eventually, it looks as though southern New England may deal with very heavy rainfall and flooding late week, especially in Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, where Ida’s remnants will interact with a stalled front.

Threat of severe weather, tornadoes

Ida’s remnants will produce a few tornadoes as the system tracks north as well. Its leftover spin will help stir up a rotation within any remaining feeder bands, creating the potential for some short-lived, erratic tornadic spin-ups.

Coastal Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle are included in a tornado watch until 4 p.m. Central time Monday, and several warnings have been issued. Additional tornado chances will be found there northeastward toward Atlanta on Tuesday, with a Level 1 out of 5 marginal risk of tornado activity all the way to Roanoke.

By Wednesday, Ida’s remnants may get hung up along a cold front approaching from the west, allowing a tropical air mass with high dew points and warm temperatures to overspread parts of the East Coast. Cities such as Washington, Richmond, Baltimore and Philadelphia will be in the “warm sector” of the storm and are under a Level 1 out of 5 risk for tornadoes.

Low-end severe weather chances may linger across Long Island and south-coastal New England on Thursday.

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Ida brought disaster to Louisiana. Here's what the storm is doing next. - The Washington Post
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